South Africa sees a 60% rise in excess deaths as Covid-19 surges

The South African Medical Research Council's finds there are 17 000 more natural deaths, what it calls "excess deaths", than expected.

At 400 000 cases and 5 940 official Covid-19 deaths, SA is the fifth highest in the world. The Guardian writes:

"South Africa’s initial response to the virus was widely praised. President Cyril Ramaphosa implemented a tough lockdown at the end of March, when South Africa had only 400 recorded cases. But a surge in poverty and unemployment in a country that already had high levels of both spurred the government to lift restrictions well before the outbreak was fully under control. Rates of infection have soared since.

"Ramaphosa said this month that scientists had predicted up to 50,000 deaths in South Africa. But confidence in the government’s handling of the crisis has plummeted. There has been widespread criticism of decisions to allow the overcrowded minibus taxis that provide most public transport to function with minimal restrictions. Health minister Zweli Mkhize said the rate of excess deaths calculated by the SAMRC was equivalent to that in India and Russia."

These are extremes times. It's not as if government wasn't aware how difficult it is or the best practice to follow and bad examples to avoid: Asia, Italy, Spain, and similar to the bad way SA is managing it, Brazil, UK and US.

Flip-flopping about schools and government's scatter gun approach generally to the pandemic is an indicator they're making it up as they go along. "Consultation" is ANC and Ramaposter-speak of devolving and abdicating responsibility (so much the better to blame) to whomever shouts the loudest: unions, right-wing anti-lockdown lobby groups and BEE donors (big business) who want to open and internal party factions.

Ramaposter looks and acts like he's in Groundhog Day, Matrix or Lost (his mechanical public addresses are like an automaton; where is the real Ramaphosa?) - not sure of reality.

Infections reached 400 000 as I predicted it would this week. One doesn't have to be a modeller - it's a clear as glass where this is heading. By end of July it shall be 500 000 and end August, 1 000 000. Official and unrecorded deaths attributable to Covid will be near 50 000.

Government and Ramaposter is like a ship and its putative captain who headed to sea in a creaky boat in a category 5 hurricane. They refused to put it safe harbour because no one can make decisions and the inane babbling from crew and passengers, who also don't know sailing, is drowning out storm warnings.

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Government has criminalised not wearing masks in public but has given shops and businesses carte blanche regarding restrictions. Three weeks ago I reported a Southern Suburbs, Cape Town shopping centre, a Redefine property, to the Western Cape Government for not obeying restrictions regarding customer numbers. 

On the day the centre was overcrowded, far more than it had been during level 4 and 5 lockdown to the end of May. There was laissez-faire/no control with centre security officers, to whom crowd control is delegated, not regulating numbers and allowing unregulated access through all open thoroughfares. Individual tenants are left to their own devices and ad hoc measures, which except for a handful that pretended to control, was limited to a spray of disinfectant on entering.

My walk through of the centre and visit to an equally overcrowded Checkers supermarket showed most shops had thrown caution to the wind as far as numbers were concerned, even small shops, like it was a normal time. Note Standard Bank was closed - no reason given, but likely a Covid infection in that branch.

Yesterday I reminded the WCG officer to whom my report had been sent, Helen Davies, director of the Green Energy department in Environmental Affairs.

She replied that only on Tuesday (the day before) did she get round to it. She said "the managing company [Redefine] informed me of the social distancing and crowd control measures that they have in place, which appear to be in order."

I responded by reiterating what I had found that day (Redefine's reply implied I was a liar and the centre numbers was as it ought to have been, i.e. properly controlled). "Is 'appear to be in order' your assessment of their plan on paper/computer, or as it's in effect in practise? I suspect at the time of my report and until you contacted them it existed as a theoretical plan only."

Now that they know she's investigating they will behave until the next complaint or until infections are traced there. Given a similar situation at Howard Centre and Cavendish over the past two weeks, both on a Sunday morning when there were relatively few shoppers and browsers, I suspect most shopping malls and stand alone shops are not bothering to control numbers. This is a problem and serious public health risk for all.

WCG's approach is reactive. Given resource constraints, I suggested she notify shopping malls reminding them of the restrictions and penalties, if any (unlikely none because only citizens are criminalised), for non-compliance, and that they could be civilly liable should an outbreak be traced to their centre. It might force them to take this seriously.

She should not announce her inspection on Saturday. Since they expect her, they'll be at their best. At least something good came of this.

Despite infections reaching 400 000 and half million by the end of the month, government, most of the public and businesses are not taking the pandemic seriously enough.