Covid-19 is uncontrollably spreading. Government has given up

Economically, militarily and diplomatically South Africa is insignificant, unexceptional. It does have Nelson Mandela, game parks and Table Mountain, though. And it excels in negative indices like poverty, unemployment and crime. Now we can add Covid-19.

SA now has the fifth highest Covid-19 infections in the world after the US, Brazil, India and Russia. As at Saturday cases were 350 879.

Table: MyBroadband

 Since 50 000, infections have been doubling every 14 days. The numbers have gone as I’ve predicted. By the end of July they will be 500 000 and one million by the end of August. There’s still an unconcerned, glib and fatalist attitude from public and government. But will it change because rapidly rising cases, up to 15 000 a day, are not doing it.

Now experts say deaths, which were comparatively low and puzzled scientists, are underreported especially when compared against excess deaths, i.e. more deaths from natural causes than anticipated, for the period.

How did we get here? A couple of weeks ago in its global report The Guardian wrote cases “surge after the lockdown ended a month ago”. From June 1 level 3 lockdown was implemented and despite cases rising, reduced level 3 from July 1.

At the end of May command council head and minister Nkonzana Dhlamini-Zuma announced level 3 Covid. She said the curve had allegedly flattened. It hadn’t but she said so to justify ending the lockdown against scientific practice. At the same time health minister Dr Zweli Mkhize said SA was doing what no country was: ending lockdown when the curve had not flattened and not meeting WHO’s other criteria for doing so.

A couple of weeks ago Dlamini-Zuma said allegedly because of SA’s “unique” situation it had no choice but open the economy, echoing Ramaphosa. At this time he shifted responsibility of fighting the pandemic to the public and gaslighted them for not taking appropriate measures. 

SA is not unique in the challenges and problems it has as a result of Covid-19. While developed countries have economic resources and not wasted it through corruption and mismanagement as SA did, all countries are struggling economically and with the public health consequences of the pandemic. African countries, a lot poorer than SA, don't have the cases SA does and are managing a lot better. Friedman says SA is more like South America than Africa in its approach.

The New York Times wrote of the British response, "British scientists and officials thought they knew better than other countries like China and South Korea. Those countries were driving down the infection rate by imposing lockdowns. The British science advisers thought such restrictions were shortsighted". The government's SAGE advisory group instead concluded that unless restrictions were permanent, a reduction of the epidemic would be lost to the "second peak".

From the outset the South African government, its advisors and Western Cape government predicted the WC, which led infections until recently when Gauteng's numbers exceeded it, would "peak" from July. But this month, with no sign infections are slowing, said it was hard to know when. The fact is WC premier Alan Winde couldn't predict he would become infected. Like complacent Europeans and British initially who thought their models would predict it, there is know way to know.

The government believed it was business as usual even when infections doubled every 14 days. While other countries and including Republican US states rethought their approaches, SA's government eased restrictions effectively ending the lockdown on June 1 to the jubilation of conservative elements.

South Africans cannot see their exceptionalism is inappropriate, false and hides systemic problems in their approaches to a variety of matters from economics to public health. This applies in the public and private sectors. The national psyche is ideological in character: constantly try and reinvent the wheel and change what works, or innovation is not recognised and outdated or unworkable models preferred. In other words, challenges are not met with timely and appropriate measures. 

This includes government, albeit from pressure and obstinacy, prematurely opening the economy against scientific advice. And with cases rising exponentially, not considering going back to lockdown as other countries are doing. Although they said they would consider it, last week Ramaphosa ruled it out.

Initially they did moderately well, and were fulsomely praised. But they grasped defeat from the jaws of victory like its national sports team. In The Conversation Steven Friedman writes their strategy was to fail. He mentions other failures including given in to lobby groups to end the lockdown. At the same time, they gave in to the taxi industry and allowed 100% occupancy in violation of medical practice of distancing.

PANDenialist (who is funding them?), FMF, IRR, right-wing and conservative business community constantly criticised government for the lockdown and restrictions. They continue carping about restrictions on alcohol and other trade and nitpick about numbers. It’s like the band on the Titanic arguing which song to play while the ship is sinking.

The South African government and Ramaphosa has given up. We're on our own. Covid-19 is uncontrollably spreading. To this there's no outrage but meek acceptance.