Thomas Johnson - Medical Blog

Is the South African government manipulating Covid-19 data to justify fully reopening the economy? Cases are apparently slowing. But since the start of the pandemic government and experts have been predicting the peak anytime from July to September.  The alleged slowing of infections comes at the time government is about to relax* the lockdown to level 2. At the same time there are reports of more focused testing, i.e. reduced community-wide testing. If that's the case, of course reported infections - not real infections in the community which could be 10 times the official number - will appear to have slowed.  When government moved to level 3 they also announced the peak had been reached. It hadn't. There's nothing about the country's precarious and collapsing health system and socio-economic position - hell, it can't even keep the lights on, struggling with 150 year-old techonology, coal-powered energy - that indicates the pandemic will just go away by itself.  T...

The South African Medical Research Council's finds there are 17 000 more natural deaths , what it calls "excess deaths", than expected. At 400 000 cases and 5 940 official Covid-19 deaths, SA is the fifth highest in the world. The Guardian writes: "South Africa’s initial response to the virus was widely praised. President Cyril Ramaphosa implemented a tough lockdown at the end of March, when South Africa had only 400 recorded cases. But a surge in poverty and unemployment in a country that already had high levels of both spurred the government to lift restrictions well before the outbreak was fully under control. Rates of infection have soared since. "Ramaphosa said this month that scientists had predicted up to 50,000 deaths in South Africa. But confidence in the government’s handling of the crisis has plummeted. There has been widespread criticism of decisions to allow the overcrowded minibus taxis that provide most public transport to function with mi...

Read articles in New York Times, Washington Post, The Guardian, etc about the pandemic in US "epicentre [sic]" - to use South African government's confused term - Arizona, Florida,etc that are experiencing surges. Replace "Arizona" and "Florida" for "South Africa" and the stories could be about SA word for word: lockdown too late, reopen too soon, lack of testing, delays in processing results, lack of a coherent strategy, political confusion, lack of leadership, president in hiding or abdicated responsibilities overwhelmed hospitals, etc. This is not an exaggeration. Ramaphosa, who has no stomach and aptitude for leadership, and his band of cabinet jesters is going to do to the nation what Mbeki failed to do to HIV/AIDS sufferers only: Through incompetence and neglect guarantee a significant section of the population get Covid-19 and die. That's not an exaggeration either. Covid-19 is spreading uncontrollably through the country...

Economically, militarily and diplomatically South Africa is insignificant, unexceptional. It does have Nelson Mandela, game parks and Table Mountain, though. And it excels in negative indices like poverty, unemployment and crime. Now we can add Covid-19. SA now has the fifth highest Covid-19 infections in the world after the US, Brazil, India and Russia. As at Saturday cases were 350 879. Table:  MyBroadband  Since 50 000, infections have been doubling every 14 days. The numbers have gone as I’ve predicted. By the end of July they will be 500 000 and one million by the end of August. There’s still an unconcerned, glib and fatalist attitude from public and government. But will it change because rapidly rising cases, up to 15 000 a day, are not doing it. Now experts say deaths, which were comparatively low and puzzled scientists, are underreported  especially when compared against excess deaths, i.e. more deaths from natural causes than anticipated, fo...

Western Cape premier Alan Winde [said] the province’s peak was likely to be “flatter, later and longer” than previously thought. A few weeks ago he said it was going to be July but it was “hard to predict". Without the curve already flattening there's no way to predict when the peak will be because no one knows the level of community infections. It's like trying to judge the severity of a predicted hurricane by a few drops of rain now. Epidemiologists say they don't know much about the virus so why do idiot politicians pretend they have the answers. Winde, who's the onomatopoeiac,, eponymous windbag, couldn't predict catching the virus himself but talks about predicting something at global level. South Africa has the tenth highest Covid-19 infections in the world and highest cases per 100 000 . Infections have been doubling every 14 days. Now 300 000, I shall reach 500 000 by month end. This is not "scaremongering", as denialists like the eve...

Last week it was clear South Africa's coronavirus cases would breach 200 000 this week . From 50 000, it has been doubling every 14 days. It will reach 500 000 in a month. There are now over new 10 000 cases a day. SA has 40% of African cases and 14th highest in the world. It has among the highest increases over a 14 day period per million people - 1 000 - 2 000 - in the same group as six other countries, US and Sweden included. These are only the tested cases, not total cases. Charts show a surge a month ago after the lockdown was eased. After initially listening to the science, Ramaphosa's government gave in to self-doubt and right-wing denialist fear-mongering and eased restrictions far too soon. They threw the baby out with the bath water and undid the the lockdown's benefits.  Now, after the fact to justify themselves, they say it was to give time to prepare rather than flatten the curve. That's believable if the country is really prepared but it's ...

South Africa's Covid-19 cases have reached 100 000 , doubling from 50 000 in 14 days. But the country is slowly going back to normal! In March, with the lockdown imposed and cases at 1 000, pandemic denialists (see right-wing local media, e.g. BizNews, Politicsweb, Daily Friend, DA and disparate commentators) postulated, with no evidence, SA was presenting more like mild Australia and New Zealand (and, why not, South Korea and Japan), and herd immunity is our saviour. That is, a lockdown is unnecessary, a nefarious ANC plot and there's nothing to worry about Others like "PANDenialists" aka PANDA, who are not medical experts, refuted credible epidemiological models. One retired SA government statistician called the pandemic a hoax. Emeritus Stanford biologist Mike Levitt (not medical doctor) called Australia a 'loser' for implementing a lockdown, and said the crisis is exaggerated. These opinions were headlined "MUST READ" (sic, BN), ie "mus...