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PANDenialist sows confusion about coronavirus pandemic

I previously wrote a group calling themselves PANDA (Pandemic - Data Analysis) in a report stated South Africa's lockdown shall kill more than Covid-19. I said they were spreading dangerous fake news and alt-facts.

PANDenialists (as I call them) is a "group" of two actuaries, an economist and medical doctor specially formed to present their (mis)interpretation of the data. They're described as a "multi-disciplinary initiative", i.e. an ad hoc action group. Only the two actuaries' - Nick Hudson, CEO of private equity firm SANA Partners, and Peter Castleden - names appear in news reports.

As I said, they have a business agenda, and unlike other groups formed in response to the pandemic don't represent medical, academic, or similar organisations.

They've been at it again, saying South Africa's deaths shall be 20 000, less than other projections despite the fact that infections and deaths are still increasing. They expect lower deaths because heir models say so and the country's youthful population.

But if they'd done their research, which they appear incapable of doing, they'd see SA has a relatively unhealthy population which mitigates against the population's ability to fight the virus - HIV/AIDS, TB, hypertension, etc. Recently Western Cape, which has the highest infections, released morbidity data that showed existing co-morbidity factors in  Covid-19 deaths, HIV/AIDS the highest.

PANDenialists (it's mainly their front men Hudson and Castleden) are not doing this to further knowledge and understanding of the pandemic. They're not objective especially when they use un-academically subjective and agenda-driven language like "frenzy of lockdown" and "lockdown shall kill more than Covid-19", opinions which are tendentious, false and they cannot prove.

And since they're not public health experts, they use existing actuarial formulae/models that are designed for normal life expectancy and deaths (actuaries and statisticians can only look back with hindsight) not a once in a lifetime event like pandemic. Why do you think insurance companies, who employ actuaries, and use actuarial models often don't cover force majeure? Because their models are not designed for it.

Hudson, his businessmen pals and chorus (including credulous media) are out of their depth and promoting the right's false and dangerous narrative that isolation in the time of pandemics is wrong. But like their provocateur ilk, they don't offer a better alternative.

This article summarises SA pandemic groups and models (the writers Marcus Low and Nathan Geffen are health computer theoreticians at Stellenbosch University). PANDenialists is mentioned last befitting their ad hoc status. Of all the professional groups incl UCT, universities, Actuarial Society of SA (ASSA), etc, their numbers are the lowest.

Why would anyone believe them rather than professional pandemic groups? Why like other conspiracy theorists would they not accept the consensus? Only because it fits their ideology. That's not science, it's emotion, and therefore, not credible.

No one knows what the infection and death numbers shall be when it's done. Credible theoreticians state at the outset they're uncertain. But conspiracy theorists and denialists who're promoting the right's agenda, despite lacking expertise and knowledge including when data is still new or absent, claim to have perfect knowledge of the past, present and future.

PANDenialists are quacks and agent provocateurs. I'd avoid professional or any other advice their members give.

Note ASSA, of which Hudson and Castleden are members, would not confirm the authenticity of PANDenialist's report/op-ed "Lockdown is a humanitarian disaster to dwarf COVID-19". All they would say is "the Actuarial Society encourage[s] research that stimulates debate and informs solutions, especially on issues of national importance".

Even their own society is careful to distance themselves especially as they conflict with ASSA's own projections. 

Does one believe dozens of actuaries, economists and public health professions, or just four. Stupid question - if one's a denialist and conspiracy theorist, just these four.

To normal people being shunned by one's peers and the consensus is painful and a blow, but not to them. In this report they're at it again.

Conspiracy theorists and denialists don't care about scientific consensus. Their "theories", to be polite, written on figurative back-of-paper-napkins, reads better. It's the gospel they write themselves. As now, this is the hallmark and folly of the right. And they have their faithful adherents.
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Caution: I googled Hudson's company, SANA Partners. My browser didn't load the page but issued this warning: "Privacy error: This server could not prove that it is sanapartners.co.za; its security certificate expired 2 days ago. This may be caused by a misconfiguration or an attacker intercepting your connection."

The browser prompted "Back to safety". Not even their server is bona fide; their wesbite, like their advice, is unsafe. I wouldn't take professional or other advice - like pandemics - from them. They can't even arrange a safe website.

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