Herd immunity
Writing in The Conversation, Wits University academics present a plan to end South Africa’s lockdown and “save the economy”:
“Mitigate the rapid spread of the virus, while allowing for natural immunity in the population to
increase gradually.” Is this the discredited herd immunity in another guise? I
assume the authors are experts, but here they're promoting a quack proposal. MIT
Technology Review:
“Assuming people who get sick do become immune, we have no
idea how long they’ll stay immune. Second, assuming they stay immune, we have
no idea how long it would take to reach herd immunity.' These are inter alia
because of unknowns: how contagious is coronavirus (estimates vary but very);
how many infected so far and asymptomatic infections (we don't know to
both).
“Strengthen health care systems to ensure optimal treatment
for as many patients as possible, both those with Covid-19 and those with other
serious illnesses.” How? There is nothing to back this statement – it's a hope
and a wish. Why not include “Find a cure and vaccine”? The public health system
in SA (and the world) is under breaking strain already (see New York and US,
the richest country).
We must defer to experts and reject conspiracy and
denialist alt-facts but didn't mean questionable proposals like the above.
Another black mark – one in a long line – for South Africa The
Conversation's contributors and SA universities.
The models to follow are South Korea's, Taiwan's and
Germany's (and Singapore's?) of mass testing, tracing and isolating. But South Africa
is not doing that or only starting to for various reasons – it waited too long
and lacks the resources.
Herd immunity for coronavirus and the disease it causes,
Covid-19, is discredited. Even with lockdowns and social distancing the spread
of infections, and death, is exponential – US, Italy, Spain, UK ... Imagine
what it would be without. Herd immunity may work with a virus/disease that has
a negligible to nil infections rate – the “R”-factor – and fatality rate and
rapidity to mortality from onset.
But coronavirus is highly infectious and it kills
quickly.
So no more proposals about herd immunity which means a
large portion of the population must be infected and recover never mind die; no
promoting dangerous, untested treatments (a small-scale chloroquine
trial in Brazil was halted after patients died and displayed
arrhythmia and no promoting epidemiological models that may or may
not be applicable to south Africa because we just don't know enough about the
virus.
Lockdown
Leaders, experts and public including business and employees
around the world are wondering how to balance safety and the continued
existence of humanity with livelihoods – to eat when it comes down to it. It's
a huge dilemma and those talking heads who offer little by way of practical
solutions who minimise it are dangerous and irresponsible.
Austria, which has 14000 infections and 384 deaths, is
relaxing measures for small shops but strict distancing applies at the risk of
fines. Denmark is doing so too. I don't know if that's the solution but any
decision must be informed by up to date data which South Africa doesn't have
yet.
But paradoxically, those self-taught, overnight experts
including in the media who only a month ago never gave coronavirus a thought as
it progressed around the globe shall now use SAs unique conditions where
it appears lockdown measures are working to justify that the lockdown
ought never to have been implemented in the first place.
However, as scientists and government warn,
they expect the deluge of cases and to peak in September. Government too mustn't
pretend everything is going according to plan. They're behind on testing and
tracing and until they test a large portion of the population no one knows
what's going on. That's where the efforts must be now before a decision is made
about relaxing measures or not.
“Pandemic” is the modern word for “plague”. Since ancient
times – before effective medicines – plagues were treated by quarantines, entire cities if necessary. Denialist and alt-fact supremo Trump wanted to
quarantine New York and adjacent states (so it must work, hey). There's no cure
or vaccine for so the only way to contain Covid-19 is isolation.
It's common sense too. With any infectious and
communicable disease including today where there are treatments the protocol is
stay away from the patient: measles, chicken pox, flu, etc. If isolation and
physical distancing works for small, individual cases, why wouldn't it work on
the global scale – communities and countries – with a highly virulent novel
virus? Is this the advice denialists also give for Ebola, Marberg, SARS, etc – go about your business?
Denialists are not only irrational, they're bordering on
lunacy, the kind of lemming herd mentality (not herd “immunity”, another of
their delusions) that makes otherwise sane people believe in doomsday cults.
Last week Nobel laureate economist Paul Krugman wrote in the
New York Times the lockdown is working but for the economy it's equivalent to a
“medical induced coma”, which is a severe but necessary condition to ensure the
patient – in this case society and humanity – survives. In fact, that's what Cyril
Ramaphosa said in his address last week. Even sceptical leaders like Boris
Johnson and Conservative Party intend extending it and agree it's working.
South Africa’s slow response
In fact, like most western hemisphere countries, SA – government
and chattering media and public – only woke the first week of March when the
first case was recorded but waited a month before implementing the lockdown, a
week later than it ought to which I said at the time. I thought mid-March when
I saw how people weren't taking social distancing rules seriously.
Even then they were complacent. Politicians and health
authorities too like Western Cape health MEC Nomafrench Mbombo who said at the
beginning of March “we got this”. At the time the only Covid-19 isolation unit
was at Tygerberg Hospital and it took another month to “slowly” prepare an
isolation ward at Groote Schuur.
But since the seriousness of the virus has dawned on them, I
agree they're acting like the global disaster it is.
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